Explainers

The Warning Signs That Are Real: A Safety System Built on Forensic Science

We read these cases for a reason beyond the story: crime, studied honestly, is patterned — and some of those patterns are visible before the worst happens. Not in a vague, trust-your-gut way (though instinct matters), but in specific, research-validated signs that experts use to predict danger. This is that knowledge, assembled into one place and pointed at a single purpose: keeping you, and the people you love, safe. Every section ends the same way — not with fear, but with what to do.

A note up front: recognizing a risk factor doesn’t mean something will happen. These are tools for awareness and action, not prophecy. And if you’re in immediate danger, the most important line in this whole piece is the simplest: call 911.

Intimate-partner danger — the most predictable, and the most preventable

This is the domain where the science is strongest, because researchers have studied it the hardest. Jacquelyn Campbell’s Danger Assessment, validated across a major multi-city study of intimate-partner homicides, identifies the factors that most predict a relationship turning lethal. The most important findings are blunt and worth knowing:

A history of physical abuse is the single strongest predictor — present in the large majority of intimate-partner homicides. Violence that has happened before is the clearest signal of violence to come.
Non-fatal strangulation is a red alert. If a partner has ever choked or “grabbed you by the throat,” the research treats that as one of the most serious escalation markers there is — a strong independent predictor of later homicide. It is not “just a fight.” It is a line that, once crossed, sharply raises the danger.
Other validated red flags: threats to kill; access to or threats with a weapon (especially a gun); escalating frequency or severity; extreme jealousy and controlling behavior; forced sex; abuse during pregnancy; stalking; and a recent or attempted separation — because leaving is statistically the most dangerous time.

What to do. If several of these are present, you are not overreacting — you’re reading the data correctly. Contact the National Domestic Violence Hotline at 1-800-799-7233 (or text START to 88788); their advocates do confidential safety planning, which is the single most protective step, especially before leaving. If you’re in immediate danger, call 911.

Coercive control — the pattern underneath the violence

Long before — or even without — a single bruise, many lethal relationships share a pattern called coercive control: a slow tightening of isolation, monitoring, financial control, and degradation that strips away a person’s independence and exit routes. It’s the thing that makes everything else more dangerous, and it’s easy to miss because each step seems small. The signs: being cut off from friends and family; having your phone, money, or movements monitored or restricted; constant criticism that makes you doubt yourself; rules and “punishments.” If this is familiar, the danger is real even if no one has hit you. The same hotline above understands coercive control and can help you think it through safely.

Stalking and the warning behaviors of intended violence

Threat-assessment professionals look for specific warning behaviors that tend to precede a targeted attack. The most important one for ordinary people to know is leakage — when someone tells a third person about an intent to harm. It shows up before a striking majority of targeted attacks, which means the people around an attacker often have the information that could stop one. Others include fixation (an intensifying, consuming preoccupation with a person), a sudden energy burst of activity, and pathway behavior — researching, planning, or acquiring the means to attack. With stalking specifically: document everything (dates, messages, sightings, screenshots), don’t engage, and report it — a documented pattern is what lets police and courts act.

Protecting the people you love

Children. There is no 24-hour waiting period to report a missing child — that’s a myth. Report to police immediately, and contact the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children at 1-800-843-5678. The first hours matter most.
Older and vulnerable relatives. People with dementia who wander, or who are isolated, are at particular risk; awareness and quick, targeted response save lives.
Online. Predators and stalkers exploit oversharing and location data. Tighten privacy settings, be wary of anyone who moves fast to isolate or to move a conversation off-platform, and trust the discomfort if something feels engineered.

Trust the feeling — then act on the facts

The author Gavin de Becker’s core insight holds up: fear, the real kind, is a signal worth heeding, not dismissing. But instinct is the alarm — this is the manual. When the feeling and the validated signs line up, that’s not paranoia; that’s pattern recognition. The bravest, smartest thing isn’t to wait and see. It’s to name what you’re seeing and reach for help early.

If you need it right now

Emergency / immediate danger: 911
Domestic violence: National Domestic Violence Hotline — 1-800-799-7233 (text START to 88788)
Crisis / suicidal thoughts: 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline (call or text 988)
Sexual assault: RAINN — 1-800-656-4673
Missing child: NCMEC — 1-800-843-5678

Frequently asked questions

What are the biggest warning signs that a relationship could turn deadly? The most research-validated predictors of intimate-partner homicide include a prior history of physical abuse (the strongest single factor), non-fatal strangulation, threats to kill, access to a firearm, escalating violence, extreme jealousy and control, and a recent separation. The presence of several together signals serious danger.

Why is non-fatal strangulation considered so serious? Research has found that a prior incident of non-fatal strangulation is a strong, independent predictor of a later attempted or completed homicide by a partner. It marks a major escalation in lethality risk and should be treated as an emergency, not a normal argument.

What is “leakage” in threat assessment? Leakage is when a person communicates to a third party — a friend, online, in writing — an intent to harm someone. It precedes a majority of targeted attacks, which is why taking such statements seriously and reporting them can prevent violence.

Is there really no waiting period to report someone missing? Correct — the 24-hour rule is a myth. You can and should report a missing person, especially a child or an at-risk adult, to police immediately. The earliest hours are the most important.

This piece is about empowerment, not fear. If any of it describes your life or someone you love, please reach out to the resources above — you deserve support, and help is real.